NDI representatives visit Hong Kong in November 2011 and Promise of Democratization Report 15

In the weeks prior to the 6 November 2011 district council elections, representatives from NDI and Victor Perton , the Commissioner to the Americas from the Victorian Government of Australia met with members of the political parties, the judiciary, academia and the press to discuss the overall political environment in Hong Kong.

On the day of the district council elections, representatives from NDI together with the Hong Kong Human Rights Monitor observed campaign activities and polling throughout the region and spoke with candidates. Following the 25 March 2012 chief executive election, NDI representatives met with many of the same individuals.

On 21 April 2012, NDI together with Hong Kong University’s Center for Comparative and Public Law and the Consulate General of Canada in Hong Kong co-sponsored a public forum where several well-known commentators and political party leaders discussed their views on Hong Kong politics in light of the recent chief executive election.

Promise of Democratization Report 15

The findings of these visits, monitoring and consultations were documented in:

·         The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: A Divisive Campaign Season: Hong Kong’s 2011 District Council Elections, 2012 Chief Executive Election and The Challenges Ahead. NDI Hong Kong Report No. 15. 1 July 2012¹.

This report was compiled by:

·         David Caragliano , NDI Senior Program Officer, Asia, principal author;

·         Peter Manikas , NDI Asia Regional Director, principal editor;

·         Tom Barry , Deputy Regional Director, principal editor;

·         Marjan Ehsassi , Senior Program Manager, Asia, principal editor.

In addition:

·         Stephen Tong assisted with meeting coordination;

·         Malte Kaeding assisted with the sections of the report dealing with the November 2011 district council elections.

NDI received input that contributed to this report from individuals with the following affiliations: The Civic Party, The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, The Democratic Party, The Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions, The Labor Party, The Liberal Party, The New People’s Party, The People Power Party, The Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Bureau, The Electoral Affairs Commission, The Hong Kong Bar Association, The Hong Kong Human Rights Monitor, The Hong Kong Journalists Association, The Hong Kong Transition Project at Hong Kong Baptist University and SynergyNet.

Focus of the report

This report is the fifteenth in that series. It focuses on the November 2011 district council elections and March 2012 chief executive election.

Through this series of reports, entitled “The Promise of Democratization,” NDI has sought to raise awareness of the challenges and the progress toward “universal suffrage,” which is set forth as the “ultimate aim” in Hong Kong’s Basic Law.

Key findings of the report

The key findings of this report were:

The importance of Public Opinion

Public opinion played an unprecedented role in the 2012 CE election. In the months immediately preceding the election, academia and media outlets released weekly public opinion polls rating the candidates (Page 15).

Other signs point to a strategy on the part of Beijing to invite the EC to consider each candidate’s acceptability to the Hong Kong people.

As early as July 11, 2011, Wang Guangya, the director of the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, took the opportunity to spell out Beijing’s criteria for the next CE during a visit with the FTU. Wang set forth three criteria:

(1) love of country and of Hong Kong;

(2) a very high capacity for governance; and

(3) broad acceptability by the people of Hong Kong.

The new addition of “broad acceptability to the people of Hong Kong” acknowledges that public opinion should affect CE electability (Page 16).

Two key developments will likely stand out in the minds of Hong Kong people when they recall the March 25, 2012 CE election:

·         One is Beijing’s unexplained announcement in July 2011 of a new “public acceptability” criterion to guide the selection of Hong Kong’s next chief executive.

·         The second is Hong Kong University pollster, Robert Chung’s mock on-line election, allowing Hong Kong people to have a voice (if not a vote) in the process (Page 14).

The opportunity to use public opinion as a tool to influence the political process

Beijing’s nod to public opinion and the enhanced level of competition among three candidates created additional space for civil society to influence the political process (Page 2 and Page 18).

Robert CHUNG’s response to the 2012 Chief Executive Election

In respect of the March 2012 Chief Executive Election:

·         Rather than conduct a public opinion poll, collating the views of a sample of a few hundred citizens over the phone, Hong Kong University Professor Robert Chung sought to solicit public input.

·         His mock election exercise, organized in the face of harsh criticism from the pro-government media, was held two days before the actual chief executive election committee vote.

·         Citizens registered for the referendum using their Hong Kong identification cards and could vote at an online website or through a mobile phone application.

·         Participants could cast their ballots for any one of the three candidates, or they could vote to abstain—effectively an affirmative vote for none of the candidates.

·         Nearly 223,000 citizens, or approximately 5 percent of Hong Kong’s registered voting population, turned out to vote in the referendum, and about 55 percent of them voted to abstain.

·         Chung’s referendum laid bare the shortcomings of the chief executive selection process. The turnout revealed a significant number of Hong Kong people frustrated by the limited options presented by their political system (Page 2)

Hong Kong University professor and pollster Robert Chung announced late in 2011 that he would try to arrange a mock referendum based on the CE election.

Rather than conduct a public opinion polling exercise and solicit the views of a sample of a few hundred citizens over the phone, Chung sought to extend the voting experience more broadly (Page 19).

Pro-Beijing media outlets sharply criticized Robert Chung and the referendum project, but the exercise seemed to proceed as planned until the day of the referendum, when two hackers blocked access to the online site (Page 19).

Complaints of foreign interference

From December 2011 through the date of the referendum exercise, more than 90 critical articles and commentaries were published making inflammatory claims against Robert Chung. Chung was accused of “liaising with British intelligence” and performing on cue for his “American masters.”

Apparently, these criticisms did not have traction with a sizable segment of the Hong Kong population (Page 20).

Denial by the NDI of involvement with Robert Chung in the Civil Referendum project

Footnote 49 on Page 20 ‘denies’ NDI involvement in the Civil Referendum project as follows:

“An article in Wen Wei Po criticized Robert Chung for the fact that he has accepted funding from NDI. See黎子珍 < 指点江山：钟庭耀是一个政治掮客 > 《香港文匯報》 2012-02-09.

Available at http://paper.wenweipo.com/2012/02/09/HK1202090017.htm

While Professor Chung has collaborated with NDI on public opinion polling projects in the past, NDI did not provide funding or technical support in connection with the 3.23 Civil Referendum project”. 

IV. The March 2012 Chief Executive Selection Process

The events of 2003 led to Tung’s ouster. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) spread to Hong Kong from Mainland China. This health emergency caused around 300 deaths in Hong Kong, widespread illness and panic. Central Government Authorities initially regarded SARS as a state secret impeding public awareness and containment of the virus. At about the same time, the HKSAR government attempted to introduce controversial national security legislation under Article 23 of the Basic Law. These events led to popular upsurge of approximately half a million protesters calling for Tung to step down. The event provided Beijing with a warning on the hazards of endorsing a CE out of sync with public opinion. Tung eventually did resign as CE, citing health reasons in March 2005 (Page 14/15).

Article 23

Article 23 of the Basic Law is one of the most controversial provisions in Hong Kong’s constitution. It provides:

The [HKSAR] shall enact laws on its own to prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People’s Government, or theft of state secrets, to prohibit foreign political organizations or bodies from conducting political activities in the Region, and to prohibit political organizations or bodies of the Region from establishing ties with foreign political organizations or bodies.

The implementation of Article 23 in a way that is acceptable to Beijing while respecting the rights and freedoms of the Hong Kong people has been one of the most difficult challenges faced by the Hong Kong government. The push to pass Article 23 legislation in 2003 led to a demonstration of more than half a million Hong Kong people. The government was compelled to withdraw the bill from the legislature. The legacy of “people power” is now part of Hong Kong politics. (Page 24).

The Hong Kong government will have to wrestle with the difficulties of drafting Article 23 legislation in the near future. Public opinion, both local and international, should inform the debate. Concerns about certain vague clauses in the original bill hinge, in part, upon the autonomy of the HKSAR government and the independence of the judiciary (Page 25).

Reference 

¹The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: A Divisive Campaign Season: Hong Kong’s 2011 District Council Elections, 2012 Chief Executive Election and The Challenges Ahead. NDI Hong Kong Report No. 15. 1 July 2012 Link to all Promise of Democratization Reports

NDI delegation visits Hong Kong in November 2010 and Promise of Democratization Report 14

From 1 – 4 November 2010, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) sent a team to Hong Kong to assess the political environment leading up to and following the passage of the political reform package.

The NDI team included:

·         Suzanne Wood, Former President of the New Zealand National Party;

·         Thomas Barry, NDI Deputy Regional Director for Asia programs;

·         Jennifer Hopfensperger, Program Officer NDI DC;

·         Belinda Winterbourne, NDI Resident Senior Program Manager for Hong Kong; 

·         Stephen Tong, NDI Program Officer for Hong Kong.

Among others, the team met with current and former government officials; political party leaders; Legislative Council members and candidates; District Councilors; nongovernmental organization representatives; academics; journalists; and diplomats.

Promise of Democratization Report 14

The findings of this delegation were documented in:

·         The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: Taking Stock - Passage of the Political Reform Package. NDI Hong Kong Report No. 14. November 2010¹.

For further information, please contact:

·         Marjan Ehsassi, Program Manager, Asia;

·         Belinda Winterbourne, Resident Senior Program Manager.

Key findings of the report

The following are the key findings in this report:

By-Election/DeFacto Civil Referendum

The League of Social Democrats (LSD) … were the first to propose a “de-facto referendum” whereby a democratic legislator would resign from each constituency, forcing a by-election.

This did not gain widespread support initially from within the pan-democratic camp, which feared it could detract from the universal suffrage issue.

Ultimately, the Civic Party decided to participate in the resignation plan while the Democratic Party had refused to employ this strategy (Page 7).

Although there were initial concerns that there may not be a contested election, a five member youth group, Tertiary 2012, also joined to ensure a contested election (Page 8).

Advice from Professor Michael DeGolyer

Michael DeGolyer, Director of the Hong Kong Transition Project, suggested that the pan-democrats should seize this opportunity to propose candidates for all five seats and develop a common theme such that people would be voting for ideals and an ideology rather than personalities (Page 11).

Hong Kong Transition Project survey

In a survey by the Hong Kong Transition Project, conducted in October 2009, 72% of 160 respondents aged 18 to 29 believed the government made policies unfairly favoring the interests of some over others. Survey findings also showed dissatisfaction with the CE’s handling of constitutional reform to be high across all groups but highest among those under 30 years of age (Page 11).

SynergyNet Review

According to the SynergyNet’s 2010 CE Review commissioned by NDI, the governance crisis faced by the CE stems from structural problems including a legitimacy deficit, a fragile governing coalition and a lack of institutionalized communication channels between the executive and legislature (Page 18).

SynergyNet suggested in the short-term that the government institutionalize a negotiation mechanism between the executive and the legislature and reform advisory committee structures. In the long-term, the government should increase the pace of constitutional reform and further develop party politics (Page 18).

Comments by Chairman of the Basic Law Institute

Alan Hoo, Chairman of the Basic Law Institute, referred to Article 31 of the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China, which states that:

 “The state may establish special administrative regions when necessary. The systems to be instituted in special administrative regions shall be prescribed by law enacted by the NPC in light of the specific conditions.”

Mr. Hoo additionally noted that requesting a plan for universal suffrage would contravene the principle of gradual and orderly progress, as established in Article 45 of the Basic Law (Page 18).

Reference 

¹The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: Taking Stock - Passage of the Political Reform Package. NDI Hong Kong Report No. 14. November 2010 Link to all Promise of Democratization Reports 

NDI delegation visits Hong Kong in August 2008 and Promise of Democratization Report 13

From 13 - 17 August 2008, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) held meetings in Hong Kong to assess the political environment leading up to and around the September 7 Legislative Council (LegCo) elections, and to gauge the environment following the announcement of the timetable for implementing universal suffrage.

NDI’s team included:

·         Christopher Pyne, Member of Parliament for Sturt, Australia and Shadow Minister for Justice;

·         Thomas Barry, NDI Deputy Regional Director for Asia programs;

·         Anne Tsai Bennett, NDI Program Manager for Asia;

·         Belinda Winterbourne, NDI Program Manager for Hong Kong;

·         Stephen Tong, NDI Program Officer for Hong Kong.

The team met with current and former government officials, political party leaders, Legislative Council members and candidates, District Councilors, nongovernmental organization representatives, academics, journalists, diplomats and others.

The NDI also collaborated with the Hong Kong Transition Project who arranged for university student volunteers to shadow six Legislative Council candidates from 31 July through election day on 7 September, to informally observe the campaigns and the polls.

Promise of Democratization Report 13

The findings of this delegation were documented in:

·         The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2008 Legislative Council Elections. NDI Hong Kong Report #13. 15 October 2008¹.

Promise of Democratization Report 13 cover

Key findings of the team

The key findings of this team were:

The Defining Election Issues

·         The LegCo elections were dominated by “livelihood” issues such as unemployment and the economy, the public’s main concerns in the lead up to September 7, as well as growing dissatisfaction with CE Donald Tsang and his administration.

·         A rise in patriotism leading up to and during the Olympics in August, combined with the SCNPC’s December 2007 issuance of a timetable for universal suffrage, pushing direct elections to no earlier than 2017 for the CE and 2020 for the entire LegCo seemed to remove the call for universal suffrage from being a focus for candidates and the public.

·         Surveys prior to the election showed that bread and butter “livelihood” issues were foremost on voters’ minds.

·         Meanwhile, only 6.5 percent of voters surveyed by the Chinese University said they would focus on universal suffrage² (Page 8).

·         Concerns over inflation, employment, the environment, and town development dominated the political Debate (Pages 8/9).

The Campaigns

NDI conducted a study with the assistance of the Hong Kong Transition Project, in which six university students in Hong Kong shadowed the campaigns of six Legislative Council candidates. The study afforded the opportunity to verify -- on the ground -- campaign techniques employed by candidates, as well as the use of resources, and other factors.

Please see Appendix II for summaries of the students’ observations of the campaigns:

Appendix II - 2008 Legislative Council Elections Case Studies: Student Observations

NDI would like to thank the Hong Kong Transition Project Director Prof. Michael DeGolyer, Cheung Puiki Research Assistant and the six student volunteers and the individual candidates and their campaign teams for their assistance on this project.

The student volunteers observed the following candidates:

·         Tanya Chan, Civic Party, Hong Kong Island;

·         Audrey Eu, Civic Party, Hong Kong Island;

·         Regina Ip, Independent, Hong Kong Island;

·         Alan Leong, Civic Party, Kowloon East;

·         Thomas Yu Kwun Wai, Civic Party, Kowloon East;

·         Fred Li Wah Ming, Democratic Party, Kowloon East;

·         Roy Tam, Independent, Kowloon West.

NDI, in collaboration with the Hong Kong Transition Project and with the assistance of six student volunteers, conducted an observation of the campaigns of six Legislative Council candidates, focused on qualitative aspects of their campaigns.

The study was conducted to help better understand the role of Hong Kong’s political parties in

supporting candidates during election time, including campaign strategies as well as general campaigning techniques.

Prior to observations, the students were briefed on their role as observers and the need to refrain from participating in any electioneering activities to ensure their neutrality.

The observations took place between 31 July 2008 and 7 September 2008. Students were asked to observe activities of the candidate and their aides, including types of campaign literature distributed, the reaction of passers-by, what other campaigning techniques were employed, and the tactics employed by the opponents.  A de-briefing session was held with interested candidates on September 11, 2008.

One student was only able to complete half of the observations, the rest were conducted by the NDI Hong Kong field staff who were part of the election assessment team.

Reference

¹The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2008 Legislative Council Elections. NDI Hong Kong Report #13. 15 October 2008 Link to all Promise of Democratization Reports 

²Eva Wu. Suffrage a low priority for voters. South China Morning Post. 15 August 2008. 

NDI delegation visits Hong Kong in November 2007 and Promise of Democratization Report 12

From 12 – 21 November 2007 the National Democratic Institute (NDI) held meetings in Hong Kong to assess the environment leading up to and around the November 18 District Council Elections and the December 2 Legislative Council by-election, and to gauge the prospects for constitutional reform to determine a timetable for implementing universal suffrage.

NDI’s team included:

·         Thomas Barry, NDI Deputy Regional Director for Asia programs;

·         Gordon Davis, NDI Resident Country Director for China programs;

·         Anne Tsai Bennett, NDI Senior Program Officer for Asia;

·         Belinda Winterbourne, NDI Program Officer for Hong Kong;

·         Tyler Stilley, NDI Senior Program Assistant for Asia;

·         Stephen Tong, NDI Senior Program Assistant for Hong Kong.

The team met with current and former government officials, political party leaders and Legislators, District Councilors, nongovernmental organization representatives, academics, journalists, diplomats and others.

Promise of Democratization Report 12

The findings of this delegation were documented in:

·         The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2007 District Council Elections, Legislative Council By-election, and Prospects for Constitutional Reform. NDI Hong Kong Report #12. December 27, 2007¹.

Belinda Winterbourne and Anne Tsai Bennett were the principal authors of this report, to which each of the other team members also contributed. 

Peter Manikas, NDI’s Regional Director of Asia Programs, made editorial contributions.

Promise of Democratization Report 12 cover

Key findings of the report

Article 23 protests

·         A catalyst for democratization was the 1 July 2003 public demonstration which brought over half a million people onto the streets (out of a population of 6.8 million) to support democracy and to oppose the passage of Article 23, a piece of unpopular national security legislation. The protest was compelling evidence of Hong Kong citizens’ desire for democracy (Page 1).

·         The Institute viewed the 2003 demonstrations that ended the dispute over proposed legislation to implement Article 23 of the Basic Law as proof of vibrant democratic instincts among the Hong Kong populace.

·         The Article 23 controversy resulted in over half a million people pouring out onto the streets (out of a population of 6.8 million) in opposition to proposed legislation they viewed as interfering with their freedom of expression (Page 3).

The Campaign – Getting Out the Vote

NDI conducted a study with the assistance of the Hong Kong Transition Project, in which a number of students observed the campaigns of five District Councilor candidates (four incumbents and one challenger).

The study afforded the opportunity to verify, on the ground, several hypotheses concerning grass-roots party organization, the use of resources, and other factors (Page 7).

Further details of this initiative were given at Appendix 1 of the report:

Appendix I - 2007 District Council Election Case Studies: Student Observations

The Hong Kong Transition Project recruited six student volunteers who conducted an observation of the campaigns of six District Council candidates, focused on qualitative aspects of their campaigns.

The study was conducted to help better understand the role of Hong Kong’s political parties in supporting candidates during election time, including campaign strategies as well as general campaigning techniques.

Prior to observations, the students were briefed on their role as observers and the need to refrain from participating in any electioneering activities to ensure their neutrality.

The observations took place between October 1, 2007 and November 18, 2007.

Students were asked to observe the activities of the candidate and their aides, including types of campaign literature distributed, the reaction of passers-by, what other campaigning techniques are employed, the tactics employed by the opponents.

The student volunteers observed the following six candidates:

·         Tony Chan Independent Incumbent Eastern District,

·         Ken Chow Liberal Party Incumbent Yuen Long District,

·         Gary Fan Democratic Party Incumbent Sai Kung District,

·         Patrick Leung Civic Party Incumbent Eastern District,

·         Jimmy Wong Democratic Party Incumbent Tai Po District,

·         Wendy Wong Civic Party New Candidate Tuen Mun District.

Each student provided a synopsis of their observations by the students. The full reports are being analyzed and will provide qualitative input to a report being prepared by the Hong Kong Transition Project (Page 17).

Reference

¹The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2007 District Council Elections, Legislative Council By-election, and Prospects for Constitutional Reform. NDI Hong Kong Report #12. December 27, 2007  Link to all Promise of Democratization Reports

NDI delegation visits Hong Kong in March 2007 and Promise of Democratization Report 11

From 11-16 March 2007 the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) sent an assessment mission to assess the political environment Hong Kong in the lead-up to the Chief Executive election scheduled for March 25.

The mission comprised:

·         Peter Manikas, NDI Senior Associate and Asia Regional Director;

·         Ivan Doherty, NDI Senior Associate and Director of Political Party Programs;

·         Gordon Davis, NDI Hong Kong Resident Country Director/Director, China Program; 

·         Eric Bjornlund, principal of Democracy International and former NDI Asia Regional Director.

The team also included

·         Belinda Winterbourne, NDI Program Officer;

·         Stephen Tong , NDI Program Assistant.

The team met with current and former government officials, political party leaders and legislators, nongovernmental organization representatives, academics, journalists, diplomats; and others.

Promise of Democratization Report 11

The findings of this delegation were documented in:

·         The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2007 Chief Executive Election. NDI Hong Kong Report #11. April 20, 2007¹.

Eric Bjornlund was the principal author of this report; Peter Manikas served as the principal editor. This report of the assessment mission is the eleventh in a series prepared by NDI about the promise of democratization in Hong Kong.

The NDI in Hong Kong

The following is a note from the report regarding the NDI’s presence in Hong Kong:

·         NDI maintains a field office in Hong Kong and conducts programs that assist Hong Kong NGOs and political parties on a nonpartisan basis to build capacity.

·         NDI’s Hong Kong office also supports programs in Mainland China that emphasize public participation and transparency in governance.

·         The U.S. Hong Kong Policy Act requires American attention to Hong Kong’s prosperity and freedoms. In addition to its annual global Human Rights Report, the U.S. government prepares a semiannual report specifically about the status of Hong Kong. The British government prepares similar reports every six months (Page 4).

Promise of Democratization Report 11 cover

Key findings of the report

Events of 2003

On July 1, 2003, more than half a million people marched to protest proposed national security legislation and in support of democracy.

Article 23 of the Basic Law requires that Hong Kong pass laws that address treason, secession, sedition, subversion and theft of state secrets.

Leading lawyers and many Hong Kong people opposed the proposed legislation on the grounds that it was overly broad and would threaten civil liberties in Hong Kong.

Conventional wisdom attributed the public’s disaffection at the time to serious economic problems that affected the livelihoods and mood of Hong Kong’s population.

Unemployment had reached a record high and property values had fallen, resulting in negative equity for many middle-class homeowners.

The eruption of political discontent and demonstrations in 2003 also reflected fundamental unhappiness with the government’s performance—not only with the government’s handling of national security legislation itself, but also its management of the public health crisis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the perceived failure of the new accountability system (Page 5)

While SARS was principally a public health phenomenon, many Hong Kong people felt immense frustration with the government’s slow response to the crisis (Pages 5/6).

The political tumult of 2003 demonstrated the overwhelming public desire for democracy and good government in Hong Kong.

It also apparently shook the central government’s confidence in the Hong Kong government and reinforced Beijing’s concern about instability and uncertainty in Hong Kong (Page 6).

Nominations to CE Election

Alan Leong Kah-kit of the Civic Party received nominations from 132 members, including 19 of the 25 pan-democrats in the LegCo. This was the first time that a candidate from the pan-democratic camp had managed to get the 100 nominations required to compete (Page 12).

Use of HKU-POP to guage public opinion

To guage public opinion on political affiliation, the NDI had added two Ride-on Questions  to the Public Opinion Programme, University of Hong Kong CEE Rolling Poll 2007 at Appendix III (Page 29). These questions were:

Q1. Do you think the CE should have any political affiliation?

Q2. Basic Law Article 45 stipulates that the Chief Executive should ultimately be returned by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures, “in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress.” By which year do you think this target should be achieved?

The answers to these questions were that the Hong Kong public is split on the question of whether the Chief Executive should have a political affiliation:

·         42 percent of the poll’s respondents agreed that the Chief Executive should have a political affiliation;

·         41 percent said he should not (Page 12).

The importance of public opinion was further noted when the two candidates for Chief Executive met in two public debates:

·         Their participation in the debates suggests that, even though the outcome of the process was never in doubt, both candidates were concerned with public opinion (Page 13).

Foreign involvement

The central government cares about “sovereignty” which it equates to “loyalty.”

It is extremely concerned about foreign involvement (Page 22).

Pace of democracy

Chinese President Hu Jintao recently acknowledged that the advancement of democracy was one of the clear desires and fundamental interests of the people of Hong Kong, but insisted that it should progress in a “gradual and orderly manner.”

In the view of the central government, the real question is the time table by which direct elections can be introduced (Page 21).

Opposition to democracy

According to many analysts, opposition to democratic elections within the Hong Kong community presents a greater barrier than opposition from Beijing (Page 22).

There is an ongoing struggle between supporters of universal suffrage and vested interests.

Such vested interests have both ideological and commercial reasons for trying to hold on against change (Page 23).

Founding of the Civic Party in 2006

The moderate pro-democratic Civic Party has its roots in the Article 23 Concern Group, a group of lawyers and other professionals that led the successful challenge to proposed national security legislation in 2003.

This group later transformed itself into the Article 45 Concern Group to press for changes in the method of electing the Chief Executive (Page 7).

References

¹The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2007 Chief Executive Election. NDI Hong Kong Report #11. April 20, 2007  Link to all Promise of Democratization Reports

NDI assessment mission visits Hong Kong in May 2005 and Promise of Democratization Report 10

From 24 – 28 May 2005 the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) conducted an assessment mission in Hong Kong in the lead-up to the Chief Executive election scheduled for July 10.

The mission comprised:

·         Sam Gejdenson, NDI board member and former member of the U.S. House of Representatives;

·         Peter Manikas, NDI Director of Asia Programs;

·         Christine Chung, NDI China Program Director;

·         Anne Tsai Bennett, NDI Asia Program Officer.

Promise of Democratization Report 9#

The findings of this mission were documented in:

·         The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2005 Chief Executive Election. NDI Hong Kong Report #10. 21 June 2005¹.

The team met with current and former government officials, including Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam, Solicitor General Robert Allcock and Deputy Solicitor General James O’Neil, political party leaders and legislators, nongovernmental organization representatives, academics, prominent business persons and representatives of business organizations, journalists, diplomats and others.

Promise of Democratization Report 10 cover

Key findings of the mission

The key findings of this mission were:

·         Donald Tsang is a moderate and is mindful of Beijing’s concerns.

·         Few anticipate that he will push for major changes.

During the ceremonial launching of his campaign, Tsang indicated his strategy to manage expectations. He stated:

“We must be modest in our stated ambitions. Better by far to promise one candle and deliver two than to promise all the brightness of the sun and deliver only darkness”

(Page 15).

Reference

¹The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2005 Chief Executive Election. NDI Hong Kong Report #10. 21 June 2005 Link to all Promise of Democratization Reports

NDI assessment mission visits Hong Kong in July 2004 and Promise of Democratization Report 9

Assessment Mission

From 18 – 23 July 2004 the National Democratic Institute (NDI) sent an assessment mission to Hong Kong in the lead-up to the September 12 Legislative Council elections.

The assessment team comprised:

·         Casimir Yost, Director of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University;

·         Matyas Eorsi, Member of the Hungarian Parliament; 

·         Christine Chung, NDI China Program Director.

The team met with current and former government officials, including Chief Secretary Donald Tsang, Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam, and Electoral Affairs Commission Chairman Justice Woo, political party leaders and legislators, nongovernmental organization representatives, academics, prominent business persons and representatives of business organizations, journalists, diplomats and others.

Promise of Democratization Report 9#

The findings of this mission were documented in:

·         The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The September 12, 2004 Legislative Council Elections. A Pre-election Report. NDI Hong Kong Report #9. August 31, 2004¹.

This report was written by:

·         Christine Chung.

The following people made editorial contributions to this report:

·         Casimir Yost;

·         Peter Manikas, NDI Director of Asia Programs;

·         Jennifer Ganem, NDI Senior Program Manager for Asia; 

·         Anne Tsai, NDI Program Officer for Asia.

Promise of Democratization Report 9 cover

Key findings of the mission

The key findings of this mission were:

Universal suffrage

Although the Basic Law only pledges universal suffrage as an “ultimate goal,” many people hoped that Hong Kong would move to a universal franchise for the next round of elections in 2007 and 2008 (Page 1).

However, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress’ (SCNPC) ruled in April that universal suffrage would not be established for either the 2007 or 2008 elections (Page 1)

Political rallies

On January 1, 2004, the Civil Human Rights Front organized a democracy rally in Hong Kong’s Central district. An estimated 100,000 demonstrators participated in the rally, far exceeding turnout expectations (Page 2).

February began a period of what many in Hong Kong dubbed the “Patriot Games.” For a couple of months, various Chinese officials and Hong Kong figures tried to define who in Hong Kong was a patriot and who was not, implying or openly stating that those people who were not friendly to the central authorities were not fit to lead Hong Kong. These denunciations were highlighted by personal attacks against Martin Lee, a Democratic Party (DP) legislator and former DP Chairman, who testified at the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing in Washington about Hong Kong’s political situation (Page 3).

ICCPR and Meeting International Standards

The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), to which both China and Hong Kong are signatories, guarantees the right to “genuine periodic elections” through “universal and equal suffrage.”

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights and numerous other human rights instruments and international agreements have similar provisions. Even before the reversion to Chinese sovereignty, Hong Kong was asked to bring its electoral law into line with the ICCPR.

In 1995, the United Nations Human Rights Committee called on the Hong Kong government to take immediate steps to comply with the ICCPR. In November 1996, the President of the United Nations Human Rights Committee condemned the failure of the Hong Kong government to respond to its previous criticisms.

The Committee reported that the use of “functional constituencies” in Hong Kong was a special restricted franchise and therefore a breach of Article 25 of the ICCPR (Page 13).

Low level of interest and activism by university students

“Many critics still lament the low level of interest and activism by university students in Hong Kong”.

Observers ascribe this lack of civic awareness to Hong Kong’s history as a colonial entity where the British deliberately minimized civic education. While colonial attitude holdovers are not disputed, public awareness is more than a prescribed program; it is an organic process that is taking hold in the HKSAR. Nevertheless, civic education appears to be an area that has been under-resourced, and it should be addressed by the government.

More support and funding needs to be channeled to Think Tanks

Think tanks in Hong Kong are emerging and expanding in both scope and breadth. Various people mentioned to the assessment team the problem of the lack of think tanks in Hong Kong.

With varying areas and degrees of competence, Hong Kong’s think tanks include among others: Policy Research Institute, Civic Exchange, SynergyNet, Article 45 Concern Group, Hong Kong Democratic Foundation, Social and Economic Policy Institute and One Country, Two Systems Institute.

Beyond these groups are Hong Kong’s universities, whose scholars often times collaborate with these civil society organizations. Moreover, the academic institutes themselves produce research and are capable of producing more than the think tanks.

“If the development of think tanks is a priority for Hong Kong, then more support and funding needs to be channeled to these nascent groups”

(Pages 24/25).

Hong Kong citizens remain skeptical of political parties

By most accounts, Hong Kong citizens remain skeptical of political parties. Less than 1% of Hong Kong’s population has ever joined a party. Commentators from across the political spectrum have noted that the middle class, in particular, is ambivalent about parties without anyone adequately representing this group (Page 25).

References

¹The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The September 12, 2004 Legislative Council Elections. A Pre-election Report. NDI Hong Kong Report #9. August 31, 2004 Link to all Promise of Democratization Reports