NDI delegation visits Hong Kong in March 2007 and Promise of Democratization Report 11

From 11-16 March 2007 the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) sent an assessment mission to assess the political environment Hong Kong in the lead-up to the Chief Executive election scheduled for March 25.

The mission comprised:

·         Peter Manikas, NDI Senior Associate and Asia Regional Director;

·         Ivan Doherty, NDI Senior Associate and Director of Political Party Programs;

·         Gordon Davis, NDI Hong Kong Resident Country Director/Director, China Program; 

·         Eric Bjornlund, principal of Democracy International and former NDI Asia Regional Director.

The team also included

·         Belinda Winterbourne, NDI Program Officer;

·         Stephen Tong , NDI Program Assistant.

The team met with current and former government officials, political party leaders and legislators, nongovernmental organization representatives, academics, journalists, diplomats; and others.

Promise of Democratization Report 11

The findings of this delegation were documented in:

·         The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2007 Chief Executive Election. NDI Hong Kong Report #11. April 20, 2007¹.

Eric Bjornlund was the principal author of this report; Peter Manikas served as the principal editor. This report of the assessment mission is the eleventh in a series prepared by NDI about the promise of democratization in Hong Kong.

The NDI in Hong Kong

The following is a note from the report regarding the NDI’s presence in Hong Kong:

·         NDI maintains a field office in Hong Kong and conducts programs that assist Hong Kong NGOs and political parties on a nonpartisan basis to build capacity.

·         NDI’s Hong Kong office also supports programs in Mainland China that emphasize public participation and transparency in governance.

·         The U.S. Hong Kong Policy Act requires American attention to Hong Kong’s prosperity and freedoms. In addition to its annual global Human Rights Report, the U.S. government prepares a semiannual report specifically about the status of Hong Kong. The British government prepares similar reports every six months (Page 4).

Promise of Democratization Report 11 cover

Key findings of the report

Events of 2003

On July 1, 2003, more than half a million people marched to protest proposed national security legislation and in support of democracy.

Article 23 of the Basic Law requires that Hong Kong pass laws that address treason, secession, sedition, subversion and theft of state secrets.

Leading lawyers and many Hong Kong people opposed the proposed legislation on the grounds that it was overly broad and would threaten civil liberties in Hong Kong.

Conventional wisdom attributed the public’s disaffection at the time to serious economic problems that affected the livelihoods and mood of Hong Kong’s population.

Unemployment had reached a record high and property values had fallen, resulting in negative equity for many middle-class homeowners.

The eruption of political discontent and demonstrations in 2003 also reflected fundamental unhappiness with the government’s performance—not only with the government’s handling of national security legislation itself, but also its management of the public health crisis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the perceived failure of the new accountability system (Page 5)

While SARS was principally a public health phenomenon, many Hong Kong people felt immense frustration with the government’s slow response to the crisis (Pages 5/6).

The political tumult of 2003 demonstrated the overwhelming public desire for democracy and good government in Hong Kong.

It also apparently shook the central government’s confidence in the Hong Kong government and reinforced Beijing’s concern about instability and uncertainty in Hong Kong (Page 6).

Nominations to CE Election

Alan Leong Kah-kit of the Civic Party received nominations from 132 members, including 19 of the 25 pan-democrats in the LegCo. This was the first time that a candidate from the pan-democratic camp had managed to get the 100 nominations required to compete (Page 12).

Use of HKU-POP to guage public opinion

To guage public opinion on political affiliation, the NDI had added two Ride-on Questions  to the Public Opinion Programme, University of Hong Kong CEE Rolling Poll 2007 at Appendix III (Page 29). These questions were:

Q1. Do you think the CE should have any political affiliation?

Q2. Basic Law Article 45 stipulates that the Chief Executive should ultimately be returned by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures, “in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress.” By which year do you think this target should be achieved?

The answers to these questions were that the Hong Kong public is split on the question of whether the Chief Executive should have a political affiliation:

·         42 percent of the poll’s respondents agreed that the Chief Executive should have a political affiliation;

·         41 percent said he should not (Page 12).

The importance of public opinion was further noted when the two candidates for Chief Executive met in two public debates:

·         Their participation in the debates suggests that, even though the outcome of the process was never in doubt, both candidates were concerned with public opinion (Page 13).

Foreign involvement

The central government cares about “sovereignty” which it equates to “loyalty.”

It is extremely concerned about foreign involvement (Page 22).

Pace of democracy

Chinese President Hu Jintao recently acknowledged that the advancement of democracy was one of the clear desires and fundamental interests of the people of Hong Kong, but insisted that it should progress in a “gradual and orderly manner.”

In the view of the central government, the real question is the time table by which direct elections can be introduced (Page 21).

Opposition to democracy

According to many analysts, opposition to democratic elections within the Hong Kong community presents a greater barrier than opposition from Beijing (Page 22).

There is an ongoing struggle between supporters of universal suffrage and vested interests.

Such vested interests have both ideological and commercial reasons for trying to hold on against change (Page 23).

Founding of the Civic Party in 2006

The moderate pro-democratic Civic Party has its roots in the Article 23 Concern Group, a group of lawyers and other professionals that led the successful challenge to proposed national security legislation in 2003.

This group later transformed itself into the Article 45 Concern Group to press for changes in the method of electing the Chief Executive (Page 7).

References

¹The Promise of Democratization in Hong Kong: The 2007 Chief Executive Election. NDI Hong Kong Report #11. April 20, 2007  Link to all Promise of Democratization Reports